Key takeaway: A regional breakfast and brunch chain’s Valpak direct mail campaign lifted average sales per household 8.63% versus a matched control group, according to an independent test-vs-control study by ABCS Insights. Guests who received a single mailing spent more per visit, visited more often and spent 5.26% more overall. The campaign returned a 1.30X incremental ROAS, paying back more than its cost in new sales within the measurement window.
Big national brands aren’t the only ones that can measure what direct mail does. This campaign reached fewer than half a million households, the footprint of a regional restaurant group, and still got a full sales-lift study. The story it tells is about the guests who came in, and how much more they spent once they did.
Breakfast Chain Campaign Results at a Glance
| Metric | Result |
| Average sales per household | +8.63% vs. control (1.3X the breakfast and coffee category norm of 6.45%) |
| Sales per buyer | +5.26% vs. control (category norm: 0.60%) |
| Sales per buying occasion | +3.48% vs. control, about $2.19 more per visit (category norm: 0.40%) |
| Purchase occasions | +1.72% vs. control (category norm: 0.20%) |
| Household penetration | +3.20% vs. control (category norm: 5.85%) |
| Incremental ROAS | 1.30X ($1.30 in sales per $1 invested) |
| Incremental sales | More than $10,000 |
| Households reached | Nearly 500,000, one drop (frequency of 1) |
| Campaign length | About 10 weeks, spring and summer 2026 |
How Did ABCS Measure the Campaign?
ABCS Insights compared households that received the mailing with a matched control group that didn’t. The two groups were balanced on a full year of pre-campaign category purchases, plus age, gender, household income and geography.
Purchases were tracked through a receipt panel of 50,954 households. The campaign ran about 10 weeks, and measurement continued roughly two weeks past its end. The 8.63% lift in average sales per household was significant at 99% confidence.
Return on ad spend was calculated against total campaign investment.
The Lift Came from Bigger Checks and Return Visits
In our QSR case study, nearly all the growth came from new households while spend per visit stayed flat. This campaign worked the other way.
Household penetration rose 3.20%, a real gain but below the category norm. The bigger movement came from the guests who did come in. They spent 3.48% more per visit, about $2.19 more per check, and they came back 1.72% more often. Combined, sales per buyer rose 5.26%, against a category norm of 0.60%.
For a sit-down breakfast restaurant, that pattern makes sense. Brunch is a planned meal. A mailed offer on the kitchen counter can turn a quick coffee into a family table, or put a second weekend visit on the calendar.
Is a 1.30X Incremental ROAS Good?
A 1.30X incremental ROAS means the campaign generated $1.30 in new sales for every $1 spent. That’s sales the restaurants would not have had without the mailing, after subtracting what the control group bought on its own. Revenue beat cost inside the measurement window.
Two things are worth knowing when you read that number. First, it’s revenue, not profit, so the margin on those extra checks decides how much of it a restaurant keeps. Second, the window closed about two weeks after the campaign ended, so any guest who came back later isn’t counted. The study’s attributable ROAS was 16.38X, but that figure includes guests who would have come anyway. Our men’s grooming case study explains why we report incremental instead.
Why Do Breakfast Offers Work in the Mailbox?
Valpak households spend:
- 28% more across all restaurant categories
- 23% more on full-service breakfast
- 10% more on fast-food breakfast
Valpak coupon users are also:
- 142% more likely to order breakfast from a fast-food chain at least twice a week
- 110% more likely to have restaurant food delivered
- 95% more likely to eat at a restaurant or order takeout at least twice a week
Breakfast and brunch are often weekend plans made at home, around the kitchen table, with the whole household weighing in. A mailed offer is already in the room when that decision gets made.
What Restaurant Marketers Can Take from This
- Check size and frequency count too. New guests get most of the attention, but this campaign grew sales mainly through guests spending more and returning more. Both show up in the bottom line.
- Regional campaigns can be measured. A study at this scale gives a restaurant group a real incremental number to plan against, not just redemption counts.
- Penetration is the next lever. Household penetration trailed the norm, so the next campaign has room to grow reach into new households, through a wider footprint or a second drop.
Frequently Asked Questions
What results did the breakfast restaurant chain get from Valpak?
Households that received a single Valpak mailing spent 8.63% more with the chain than a matched control group, and the campaign returned a 1.30X incremental ROAS, according to an ABCS Insights test-vs-control study.
Is a 1.30X incremental ROAS good for a restaurant?
A 1.30X incremental ROAS means the campaign generated $1.30 in new sales for every $1 spent, so incremental revenue exceeded campaign cost within the measurement window. Whether that is profitable depends on the restaurant’s margins, and the study does not count repeat visits from new guests after the window closed.
How was the campaign measured?
ABCS Insights compared households that received the mailing with a matched control group, balanced on a year of pre-campaign category purchases and demographics. Purchases were tracked through a receipt panel of 50,954 households for about two weeks past the campaign’s end.
What is sales per buying occasion?
Sales per buying occasion is the average amount spent each time a household makes a purchase, the restaurant equivalent of average check size. In this study, it rose 3.48% versus the control group, or about $2.19 more per visit.
Does direct mail work for breakfast and brunch restaurants?
In this study, a breakfast and brunch chain’s guests spent 3.48% more per visit, visited 1.72% more often and spent 5.26% more overall than a matched control group, lifting average sales per household 8.63%.
Can a regional restaurant campaign be measured for incrementality?
Yes. This campaign reached fewer than 500,000 households, and ABCS Insights still measured its sales effect against a matched control group using a receipt panel of 50,954 households.
Sources
- ABCS Insights, Valpak Breakfast and Brunch Restaurant Sales Effect Report (Sept. 2026). Test vs. matched control, matched on 12 months of pre-period category sales and demographics. Ten-week spring–summer 2026 campaign; measured approximately two weeks past campaign end. Fewer than 500,000 households reached; frequency 1.0. N=50,954 households (receipt panel). Norms: ABCS QSR – Breakfast/Coffee. Average sales per household lift significant at 99% confidence.
- Claritas data with current year projections, October 2026
- 2026 AudienceSCAN® study of U.S. online adults 18+, SalesFuel, Inc.
