Key takeaway: A national quick-service restaurant brand’s seven-week Valpak campaign generated $22.4 million in incremental sales and an 8.39X incremental return on ad spend (iROAS), according to an independent test-vs-control study by ABCS Insights. Households that received the campaign spent 5.33% more with the brand than a matched control group, and 4.34% more households made a purchase.
Those numbers matter because they measure what a quick-service brand actually cares about: sales that would not have happened without the campaign. Not clicks. Not impressions. Receipts.
QSR Campaign Results at a Glance
| Metric | Result |
| Incremental ROAS | 8.39X ($8.39 in sales per $1 invested) |
| Incremental sales | $22.4 million |
| Incremental purchases | More than 1.5 million |
| Average sales per household | +5.33% vs. control (buyers and non-buyers) |
| Household penetration | +4.34% vs. control (about 2X the casual dining norm of 2.18%) |
| Sales per buying occasion | -0.05% (essentially flat) |
| Households reached | More than 56 million |
| Campaign length | Seven weeks, summer 2025 |
How Do You Measure Direct Mail Incrementality?
ABCS Insights compared households that received the campaign against a matched control group that didn’t. Purchases were tracked through a receipt panel of 1,158,098 households, and the measurement window ran about two weeks past the campaign’s end. That buffer captures shoppers who held onto an offer before redeeming it, which is common with mailed coupons.
Return on ad spend was calculated against total campaign investment.
What Is Incremental ROAS?
Incremental ROAS measures only the revenue a campaign caused, not total revenue from everyone who saw it. Standard (attributable) ROAS counts a regular who would have stopped in anyway. Incremental ROAS subtracts that baseline by comparing exposed households to similar households that weren’t exposed.
That’s why 8.39X carries more weight than a standard ROAS figure. It’s the lift above what the brand would have sold on its own.
The Growth Came from New Households, Not Bigger Tickets
The most telling number in the study might be the flattest one. Sales per buying occasion barely moved (-0.05%), which means people weren’t spending more per visit. The lift came from more households showing up at all.
Household penetration rose 4.34%, about twice the casual dining norm of 2.18%. For a QSR brand competing on every corner, that’s the hardest lever to pull: getting a household that wasn’t planning on you this week to choose you over the drive-thru next door. Across more than 56 million households, that shift added up to more than 1.5 million incremental purchases.
Why Do Restaurant Coupons Perform in Direct Mail?
Valpak coupon users are:
- 18% more likely to eat fast food at least twice a week
- 95% more likely to eat at a restaurant or order takeout
- 110% more likely to have restaurant food delivered
- 142% more likely to order breakfast from a fast-food chain
And they spend 14% more than the average U.S. household at fast-food restaurants.
Restaurant offers do well in the Valpak envelope because households open it looking for deals. A coupon doesn’t interrupt anything. It shows up at the kitchen table when the family is already deciding where dinner comes from.
What QSR Marketers Can Take from This
- Measure incrementality, not reach. Impressions and redemptions tell you activity. A test-vs-control sales study tells you whether the money came back. This brand came away with a number its finance team can use.
- Penetration is the growth lever. Most QSR guests already know what they order. Winning more households beats nudging up the average ticket, and offers that land in the home are built to do exactly that.
- Give the offer time. Measuring two weeks past the campaign’s end caught purchases a shorter window would have missed. Build that tail into any campaign evaluation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What return on ad spend did the QSR brand get from Valpak?
The brand earned an 8.39X incremental ROAS, or $8.39 in sales for every $1 invested, in a seven-week Valpak campaign measured by ABCS Insights.
How much incremental revenue did the campaign generate?
The campaign drove $22.4 million in incremental sales from more than 1.5 million incremental purchases, based on an ABCS Insights test-vs-control study.
How was the campaign measured?
ABCS Insights compared households that received the campaign with a matched control group that didn’t, tracking purchases through a receipt panel of 1,158,098 households for two weeks past the campaign’s end.
What is household penetration in restaurant marketing?
Household penetration is the share of households that buy from a brand during a given period. A rise in penetration means more households purchased, not that existing customers spent more. In this study, penetration rose 4.34% versus the control group.
How long should you measure a direct mail campaign after it ends?
Plan to measure for at least a couple of weeks past the in-home end date. Mailed offers are often kept and redeemed later, so a window that closes when the campaign does will undercount results. This study measured two weeks beyond the campaign’s end.
Does direct mail work for quick-service restaurants?
Yes. In this study, a national QSR brand grew household penetration by 4.34% and average sales per household by 5.33% versus a matched control group, returning $8.39 in incremental sales for every $1 invested.
Sources
- ABCS Insights, Valpak QSR Sales Effect Report (Sept. 2026). Test vs. matched control. Seven-week campaign, summer 2025; measured approximately two weeks past campaign end. 56M+ households reached. N=1,158,098 households (receipt panel). Norms: ABCS Casual Dining.
- 2026 AudienceSCAN® study of U.S. online adults 18+, SalesFuel, Inc.
