Direct Mail vs. TV Advertising in an Election Year

Rich color, motion, sound and broad reach once made TV the undisputed king of advertising. This fall, it comes with a catch: every local spot is competing with the most expensive election cycle on record.

For decades, a TV commercial promised the “big break.” Run your spot enough times in front of the right people, and a relatively unknown business could become a household name. That promise is what made TV expensive, and it’s what still makes it tempting for local business owners today.

If you advertise on TV, you may already be hearing it: rates are up, avails are thin, and the spot you booked for mid-October might not air. That isn’t bad luck. It’s the midterm cycle, and it arrives on schedule every two years. In 2026, it’s arriving bigger than ever.

So the question for Q4 isn’t just “TV or direct mail?” It’s where a local advertiser can put dollars that will actually run, reach the right households and prove they worked. Here’s what the numbers say.

Why Your Q4 TV Buy Costs More This Year

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political ad spending for the 2026 cycle, the most expensive on record and more than the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle. Broadcast TV is expected to absorb $5.6 billion of it, with another $2.7 billion going to connected TV.¹

BIA Advisory Services, which tracks local advertising specifically, tells the same story from a different angle. In September, BIA raised its 2026 local political forecast to $9.7 billion, up from $8.4 billion in April, and reported that broadcast and streaming TV captured $1.2 billion of that $1.3 billion increase.² The two firms measure differently, but they agree on where the money is going: straight into the TV and streaming inventory local businesses rely on.

Here’s why that lands on commercial advertisers. Federal law requires broadcast stations to sell airtime to legally qualified candidates at their lowest unit charge during the 60 days before a general election.³ For the November 3 election, that window opened September 4. The same day, the U.S. Supreme Court reinstated FCC guidance that extends those lowest rates to certain party ads coordinated with candidates and to joint fundraising committees.⁴ Translation: more political money now qualifies for a station’s best pricing, chasing the same fixed number of spots.

There are only so many :30s in a 6 p.m. newscast. When political demand spikes, everyone else feels it three ways: higher rates, less available inventory and more preemptions. Media firm Assembly told advertisers in high-intensity markets to prepare for all three.⁵ Scale Marketing expects October to be the peak, with news and sports programming hit hardest⁶, which is exactly where many local businesses like to be seen.

A preemption usually means a make-good in a different time slot or a credit on your invoice. Neither one puts your fall promotion in front of customers the week you planned it. The pressure is sharpest in states and markets with competitive Senate, governor or House races, but political dollars spill across entire regions.

Streaming isn’t an escape hatch this fall

Moving the budget to CTV doesn’t dodge the crunch. In BIA’s September forecast, political advertising accounts for more than a third of all local CTV/OTT spending in 2026, and roughly one in every five broadcast TV dollars.⁷ Subset Media reports CPM inflation and tightening premium inventory across major streaming platforms as campaigns follow viewers there.⁸

Direct mail sits at the other end of that chart. BIA finds that outside of the video channels and magazine print, every media category it tracks draws less than 5% of its spending from political sources.⁷ The mailbox doesn’t have a lowest-unit-charge window, and there’s no daypart for a campaign to buy out from under you.

Where to Put Your Q4 Dollars So They Actually Run

A Valpak placement is booked for a scheduled in-home window at the price you agreed to. It isn’t auctioned, it can’t be bumped for a Senate ad, and it arrives in the household whether or not the local news is sold out that week. For TV advertisers staring at a volatile October, that predictability is the point.

A few ways to use it:

• Protect the brand, move the offer. Keep TV or CTV where you can still get placement you trust, and shift the promotional, call-to-action share of your October and early November budget into mail.
• Time the in-home date around the crunch. October through Election Day is when broadcast pressure peaks. That’s when a physical offer on the kitchen table does the most work.
• Make every dollar prove itself. Use unique offer codes, QR codes, URLs and call tracking so you can compare cost per lead against the TV spots that did air.
• Plan for November 4. BIA expects local political spending to fall to about $1.1 billion in 2027.⁷ When TV rates normalize, rebalance, but keep the channel that showed you its receipts.

The math is simple. A local 30-second spot in a smaller market typically runs $200 to $1,500 per airing before production.⁹ At the top of that range, the same money can cover a month of targeted shared mail to roughly 30,000 nearby homes, and a mail drop doesn’t get preempted.

The TV Landscape Has Fundamentally Shifted

Election season is a temporary squeeze. The bigger, permanent change is that streaming has overtaken traditional television outright. As of mid-2025, streaming accounted for the largest share of total TV viewing, surpassing the combined share of broadcast and cable for the first time in measurement history, according to Nielsen.¹⁰

Cord-cutting is now mainstream. Industry forecasts put U.S. non-pay-TV households at roughly 80.7 million by the end of 2026, while traditional pay-TV households slide toward the low 50 millions.¹¹ Pay-TV penetration, which peaked near 88% in 2010, has fallen below half of U.S. households.¹²

Local ad dollars are following viewers. BIA ranks CTV/OTT as the fastest-growing local media category it tracks, reaching $5.9 billion in 2026, up 76.3% year over year. That headline number includes political, though. Strip campaign money out and CTV’s local growth is closer to 11%, still strong, but a reminder of how much of streaming’s 2026 surge is election-driven.⁷

The Rise of CTV and Ad-Supported Streaming

The viewers who left cable didn’t stop watching TV. They moved to connected TV, content streamed to an internet-connected television through services like Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, Peacock, Tubi and many more.

A few years ago, the streaming pitch to consumers was “pay a little, skip the ads.” That bargain has quietly reversed. Ad-supported tiers are now where the growth is:

• Netflix’s ad tier has scaled to roughly 190 million monthly active viewers globally, and around 60% of new sign-ups now choose the ad-supported plan.¹³
• Amazon Prime Video made ads the default for its standard tier, so the vast majority of its subscribers, by some estimates around 82%, now watch with ads unless they pay to remove them.¹⁴
• Disney reported its combined Disney+ and Hulu platforms reached roughly 196 million subscriptions, with a large and growing share on ad-supported plans.¹⁵
• Analysts estimate that in 2025, effectively all of the net U.S. subscriber growth at major streamers came through ad-supported tiers, while ad-free subscriptions declined.¹⁶

All those ad-supported viewers add up to inventory, and advertisers are spending accordingly. U.S. CTV ad spend is projected at roughly $38 billion in 2026, growing around 14% year over year.¹⁷ eMarketer projects that 2026 CTV upfront commitments will exceed primetime linear TV upfronts for the first time.¹⁸

CTV’s appeal is that it blends the visual punch of television with the targeting precision of digital. Ads are typically non-skippable, with completion rates above 90%, and they can be aimed at households by demographics, interests, geography and viewing behavior.¹⁹ That’s a genuine improvement over traditional TV, and it’s why CTV belongs in any honest comparison.

The New Challenges Advertisers Face

CTV solves some of linear TV’s oldest problems. It also introduces new ones local advertisers should walk in with eyes open.

Fragmentation. Audiences are scattered across dozens of apps and devices. Reaching the same household consistently means buying across Netflix, Hulu, Roku, Amazon, Peacock and more, each with its own inventory, pricing and rules.

Higher CPMs. CTV CPMs commonly run $35 to $65, versus roughly $15 to $35 for local linear TV and $10 to $30 for cable.²⁰ In an election year, premium streaming inventory in competitive states faces added upward pressure on top of that.⁸

Minimum spends and production costs still apply. Programmatic platforms have lowered the entry point, with some CTV campaigns starting around $1,000 to $5,000 per month.²¹ But you still need polished video creative, and production for a regional-quality spot typically lands between $15,000 and $50,000.²²

Ad fatigue and frequency. Because inventory on any one platform is finite, viewers often see the same spot repeatedly. In the fall of an election year, your spot also shares the break with a steady stream of campaign ads, which Scale Marketing notes can leave viewers desensitized or disengaged.⁶

Measurement and attribution. CTV is more measurable than linear TV, but tying a streaming impression to an in-store visit or phone call remains one of the channel’s hardest problems, and many of the most impressive CTV figures come from vendor-published models rather than audited results.¹⁸

None of this means skip CTV. It means CTV is a reach-and-awareness engine with real friction on cost, complexity and proof of ROI, which is the gap a measurable local channel is built to fill.

Where Direct Mail Fits: Targeting and Tracking

Direct mail isn’t a niche play in local advertising. BIA ranks it as the second-largest local ad medium in the country, $37.5 billion in 2026 excluding political, and about one in every five local ad dollars overall, behind only mobile.⁷

It also answers the questions television still struggles with. How many real people saw your ad? Did they act? Which households, on which streets, became customers? With the right partner, you can target local households by demographics, geography and purchasing behavior, then tie response back to the campaign with unique codes, URLs, QR codes and phone numbers.

That’s also where waste disappears. A traditional TV buy can’t choose which neighborhoods receive it; the whole market does. Home-services companies pay to reach apartment dwellers, and a pizza shop’s ad reaches people who live closer to a competitor. Targeted mail goes only where your customers are.

Valpak’s audience skews toward consumers with discretionary income, and the Blue Envelope enables household-level targeting, so your message reaches prospects pre-qualified by years of consumer research rather than whoever happens to be streaming.

Consumer Response: Mail Still Drives Action

The latest ANA/DMA Response Rate Report puts the average direct mail response rate at about 4.4%, with house lists reaching as high as 9%. Email sits near 0.12%, meaning direct mail generates roughly 36 to 37 times more responses per piece.²³

• Direct mail to house lists delivers an average ROI cited around 161%, among the highest of any paid channel measured.²⁴
• The average mail piece has an in-home lifespan of about 17 days, versus an email that’s gone in seconds.²⁴
• Roughly 90%+ of promotional mail gets opened and read.²⁵

And the “mail is only for older audiences” myth doesn’t survive the data. A large majority of millennials report making purchase decisions based on direct mail, and Gen Z reports rising interest in it.²⁶ Digital fatigue is real, and a physical piece in the hand cuts through it.

The Cost Comparison: TV, CTV and the Mailbox

Television carries significant upfront costs before anyone sees your spot: talent, shooting, editing. Then the meter runs on station, daypart and coverage. Most small businesses aren’t buying primetime; a local 30-second spot in a smaller market typically runs $200 to $1,500 per airing, before production.⁹

Say you own a Mexican restaurant and run a 30-second local spot weekly for a month. Airtime alone could range from roughly $800 to $6,000. If 50 new guests come in as a result, your cost per lead could climb toward $120, and you’d still be guessing how many people saw it. Run that same schedule in October of an election year and you may also be paying a higher rate for spots that don’t air when you planned.

Compare that to targeted shared mail, which costs pennies per household. Mailing roughly 30,000 nearby homes can run from a few hundred to about a thousand dollars a month. If 50 of those households walk in, your cost per lead drops dramatically, and you can track exactly which offers were redeemed.

Now a higher-ticket example. A roofing company gets 5 calls from a TV campaign; with airtime and production, cost per lead could top $1,000. Because a new roof is a high-value job, TV can still pencil out. But targeted mail to the same service area typically delivers those leads at a meaningfully lower cost per call, with tracking that proves it.

TV and CTV can work. They ask you to pay a premium for reach and trust that it landed. Mail asks you to pay for precision, and then shows you the receipts.

The Real Takeaway: Synergy, Not Either/Or

This was never a winner-take-all fight. CTV and streaming are excellent at building awareness and reaching cord-cutters. Heavy CTV viewers frequently search a brand online after seeing it on screen, and paid conversions improve when audiences have already encountered a brand on streaming.²⁷ TV creates the impression; another channel closes the loop.

Direct mail is built to be that closing channel: measurable, local, hard to ignore and holding a tangible offer. In an election year, it does one more job. It keeps your offer in market while TV inventory is being bid up and bumped.

BIA’s early look at 2027 is a useful reminder that the squeeze is temporary. Local ad spending is expected to hold roughly flat next year as nonpolitical demand grows enough to offset the political roll-off.² Retail, financial services, restaurants and home services keep needing customers whether or not there’s an election on the ballot. The businesses that come out of Q4 strongest are the ones that kept a measurable channel running while everyone else fought for airtime.

Don’t go all-in on a single screen, especially this fall. Build a mix that gets seen and gets tracked, and lean hardest on the channels that can prove they worked.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do TV ad prices go up during election years?

Political campaigns flood a fixed supply of TV and streaming inventory in the weeks before an election. Federal law also requires broadcast stations to sell candidates airtime at their lowest unit charge in the 60 days before a general election, so commercial advertisers compete for what’s left at higher rates.³

What does it mean when a TV ad is preempted?

A preempted spot is bumped from its scheduled slot, usually to make room for higher-priority or higher-paying ads. Advertisers typically receive a make-good in another time slot or a credit, but the ad doesn’t air when it was planned.

Is CTV safe from political ad pressure?

Not in 2026. AdImpact projects $2.7 billion in political CTV spending this cycle¹, and BIA estimates political makes up more than a third of local CTV/OTT spend this year.⁷

Where should local businesses advertise during midterm elections?

Channels with little political exposure and scheduled delivery hold up best. Direct mail draws less than 5% of its spending from political sources in BIA’s forecast⁷, and shared mail like Valpak arrives on a set in-home schedule with tracking built in.

When do TV ad rates return to normal after an election?

Political spending drops sharply once the election passes. BIA expects local political ad spending to fall from $9.7 billion in 2026 to about $1.1 billion in 2027.⁷

Sources

1. AdImpact, “AdImpact Reveals 2026 Election Cycle to Reach Record $11.6 Billion in Ad Spending,” June 11, 2026; see also CNBC, June 11, 2026.
2. BIA Advisory Services, September 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast update, as reported by Inside Radio and Barrett Media, September 2026.
3. FCC Media Bureau, Public Notice DA 26-300, “Guidance on Entitlement to Lowest Unit Charge,” March 30, 2026; Communications Act Section 315(b).
4. S. Supreme Court stay order, NRSC and NRCC v. Brown, September 4, 2026, as reported by Reuters and Inside Radio.
5. Assembly, 2026 political advertising outlook, via Campaigns & Elections, “Political Advertising Could Weigh on Broader Media Market in 2026,” October 2025.
6. Scale Marketing, “The State of Media in 2026: Navigating a Midterm Election,” March 2026; “Navigating Local TV Advertising During Political Campaigns.”
7. BIA Advisory Services, “U.S. Local Advertising Forecast: What Changed Since April and What’s Ahead for 2027,” client summary, September 2026.
8. Subset Media, “Tips on Preparing for the 2026 Midterm Ad Squeeze,” April 2026.
9. MNTN / Simulmedia, Local TV Advertising Cost 2026, 30-second small-market spot ranges.
10. Nielsen, The Gauge monthly viewership report, mid-2025.
11. eMarketer / Evoca TV analysis, non-pay-TV vs. pay-TV household projections through 2026.
12. Leichtman Research Group / Pew Research Center, U.S. pay-TV penetration trends, 2025–2026.
13. Netflix shareholder communications and trade reporting (TheWrap, January Digital), 2025–2026.
14. Digital i / Deadline and Movieguide reporting, Prime Video ad-supported usage share, January 2026.
15. The Walt Disney Company / Zacks reporting, combined Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions, Q4 FY2025.
16. Morgan Stanley analysis via Sherwood News, U.S. streaming net additions by tier, December 2025.
17. eMarketer / IAB 2026 Ad Spend Forecast; AdWave market projections, U.S. CTV ad spend.
18. eMarketer, 2026 CTV vs. primetime linear upfront forecast; note that many CTV figures are vendor-published models rather than audited actuals.
19. StackAdapt and MNTN Connected TV statistics, 2026.
20. MNTN / DesignRush / Vidico TV advertising cost guides, 2026 CPM ranges by channel.
21. Vidico, How Much Does a Commercial Cost? 2026.
22. MNTN / Mr. Green Marketing, 2026 regional-quality video production cost tiers.
23. ANA/DMA Response Rate Report (2025 edition) via Mail Processing Associates and CRST.
24. ANA/DMA Response Rate Report, house-list ROI and in-home lifespan figures.
25. Postalytics / Modern Postcard, 2026 direct mail open-and-read statistics.
26. First Class Marketing / ReSimpli, generational direct mail engagement, 2025–2026.
27. Paramount Ads Manager / CTV vs. Social Report, 2026.