Between new clothes, laptops, dorm setups and the steady stream of notebooks, pens and backpacks, families pour tens of billions of dollars into getting students ready each year. In 2025, combined back-to-school and back-to-college spending reached an estimated $128.2 billion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Want a slice of that?
Why Timing Matters
Timing matters for all marketing, but back-to-school is especially sensitive to swings in demand. Over the past decade that demand has crept earlier and earlier. As of early July 2025, two-thirds (67%) of back-to-school shoppers had already started buying, the highest share since the NRF began tracking early shopping in 2018 and a big jump from 55% the year before. More than half of families (51%) said they were shopping earlier specifically because they expected prices to rise.
August is still the single biggest month for purchases, but the season now stretches well into July. If your campaign doesn’t launch until “back-to-school” feels obvious, you may be reaching shoppers who already crossed your category off their list. Knowing your industry, your region and your historical purchasing trends is what lets you get in front of buyers before they spend.
Don’t assume every shopper behaves the same way, either. Spending splits sharply by income. Higher-income households drove much of 2025’s growth while lower-income families pulled back – and by category. Many parents still control the household budget, but Gen Z students are increasingly shopping early and independently for their own apparel and footwear, so think carefully about who in the household you’re actually trying to reach.
Best Time for Marketing
When school actually starts is still a major driver, so research the start dates for districts in your area. They vary widely by region and shift the calendar for everything from haircuts to dorm runs. Then layer in product timing. Many shoppers wait until the week before classes for things like haircuts, while spending on entertainment and dining tends to drop once school is back in session, making the last few weeks of summer your window for those promotions.
Two newer forces should shape your calendar:
Summer sales events. Back-to-school timing now revolves heavily around mid-summer retail events. In 2025, the large majority of shoppers timed purchases around promotions like Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Week. If you can align offers with that early-July deal-hunting mindset, you’ll catch shoppers while their wallets are already open.
Sales tax holidays. Roughly 19 states held sales tax holidays in 2025, most of them in late July or August, and that’s reliably when big-ticket back-to-school purchases get made. Check whether your state has one and when it falls this year — the Sales Tax Institute’s holiday chart is a useful reference — then plan your push to lead into it.
One more shift worth noting: online is now the most popular place to shop (about 55% of K-12 families in 2025), followed by department stores, discount stores and clothing stores. Demand still varies regionally, but a campaign that ignores digital channels is leaving reach on the table.
Whatever industry you’re in, there’s a meaningful market to capture in the weeks — and now months — leading up to the first day of class. Here’s how to start planning.
Get Started Today
- Review your historical sales data from June through August. When do your busiest stretches actually fall, and have they been moving earlier?
- Identify your biggest sellers during this period and who’s buying them – Parents, college students or Gen Z shoppers buying for themselves.
- Check this year’s local school start dates and your state’s sales tax holiday dates, then map your campaign to lead into both.
- Build offers around the early-summer deal events shoppers are already watching, and make sure your digital and direct mail channels work together.
- Use these insights to lock in your 2026 back-to-school marketing plan before competitors do.
Ready to reach local back-to-school shoppers? Talk to Valpak about postcards, the Blue Envelope and digital solutions that put your offer in front of the right audience at the right time.
